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donny2112
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:43 AM)
ITT, predict for the NPD April 2017 retail period (April 2-29, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 2-29, 2017 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, May 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on May 18th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting

Code:

Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in April:
Nintendo Switch stock during the month - 28 days
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe release April 28 - 2 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

(March's results not public)
March's #1 predictor

Originally Posted by Zedark

[NSW] 950k
[PS4] 360k
[XB1] 200k

Some figuring:

Originally Posted by Nintendo

The Nintendo Switch system sold more than 906,000 units in March, according to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States.

Originally Posted by Zedark

I checked these numbers against the other predictions, and PS4 ~ 390k and XB1 > 225k follows logically and doesn't contradict the ranking (i.e., no one overtakes me with these results, for any arbitrary XB1 numbers above 225k). This is the best I can do atm.

March 2016 NPD thread
April 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
CosmicQueso
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:48 AM)
CosmicQueso's Avatar
Bad joke placed into freezer, will defrost in a month.
Last edited by CosmicQueso; 04-29-2017 at 04:55 AM.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:49 AM)
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule's Avatar
[NSW] 450k
[PS4] 180k
[XB1] 110k

MK8D 600k

Originally Posted by Welfare

The biggest April ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 199K in 2014. Second biggest? XB1 with 187K in 2015.


I'll adjust my predictions then...
Last edited by Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule; 04-29-2017 at 10:54 PM.
mikey1123
Junior Member
(04-29-2017, 04:49 AM)
mikey1123's Avatar
[NSW] 741K
[PS4] 441K
[XB1] 201K
Welfare
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:50 AM)
Welfare's Avatar
[NSW] 404K
[PS4] 196K
[XB1] 143K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of March and April. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while April is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for April to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts

Code:

2011

Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600
Xbox 360 April: 297K / 4 = 74,250

Weekly average down 16%

PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000
PS3 April: 204K / 4 = 51,000

Weekly average down 30%

Code:

Notable Releases in April

Xbox 360
Mortal Kombat 
Portal 2
Michael Jackson: The Experience

PS3
SOCOM 4
Mortal Kombat
Portal 2
Michael Jackson: The Experience

Code:

2012

Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000

Weekly average down 36%

Code:

Notable Releases in April

Xbox 360
Kinect Star Wars 320GB Bundle $449

Code:

2013

Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500

Weekly average down 38%

PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500

Weekly average down 40%

Code:

Notable Releases in April

Xbox 360
Injustice: Gods Among Us

PS3
Injustice: Gods Among Us

Code:

2014

Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average down 20%

Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750

Weekly average down 54%

PS3 March: 68K / 5 = 13,600
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750

Weekly average down 36%

PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750

Weekly average down 33%

Code:

Notable Releases in April

Xbox 360
Titanfall [483,000]

PS4
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn

Code:

2015 

Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average up 2%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average down 34%

Code:

Notable Releases in April

Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]

Mortal Kombat X [>516k]

PS4
Mortal Kombat X [>734k]

Code:

2016

Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000

Weekly average down 13%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average down 34%

Code:

Notable Releases in April

Xbox One
$50 price cut on all models March 22nd - April 30th (28 days in April NPD / 4 weeks)

Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]

Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [151K]

PS4
Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [353K]
Ratchet & Clank [3 weeks] [207.5K - 237K]

Code:

2017 March Weekly Averages

Switch: 906K / 5 weeks = 181,200

Xbox One + PS4 

Code:

Notable Events in April

Nintendo Switch
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [1 week]
LEGO City Undercover [4 weeks]

Xbox One
LEGO City Undercover [4 weeks]

PS4
Persona 5  [4 weeks] 
LEGO City Undercover [4 weeks]
Notes:

The end is nigh, the end is nigh, consoles are dead the end is nigh.

Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped an average of -23%, with a minimum of -14% (2011) and maximum of -38% (2013).

Xbox One has had deals in the 2 previous April’s and April 2014 was when the console could no longer sell at $499, even with Titanfall. Those deals helped XB1 sales hold significantly well but there wasn’t any type of deal this year. Even though 2 years had fairly good holds, the drop in 2014 helps even out the “average” to a more normal -22%, but of course this year is more likely to drop more than that.

Playstation
The PS3 dropped an average -35%, with a minimum of -30% (2011) and maximum of -40% (2013).

PS4 has been very consistent every April. It dropped an average of -33%, with a minimum of -33% (2014) and maximum of -34% (2015 AND 2016).

Nintendo
Switch is still selling out everything they ship, and with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, expect a ton of Switch units to be sold.

The closest comparison we could make with previous Nintendo hardware is 3DS, but it isn’t exact 1:1 as 3DS only had 1 week in March 2011 and Switch had a full 5 weeks, but 3DS April 2011 sales were 194K, down from the 398K it launched at, or a month over month drop of -51%. 3DS also wasn’t selling out but rather in a very dire situation thanks to no games and high price.

Recap
April is a very clear drop from March.. Weekly average drop from March is ~30%.

The biggest April ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 714K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 360K in 2007.

The biggest April ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 199K in 2014. Second biggest? XB1 with 187K in 2015.
Last edited by Welfare; 05-10-2017 at 01:00 AM.
donny2112
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:52 AM)

Originally Posted by CosmicQueso

I predict 0 units for the NES Classic.

You lose! It's May that'll have 0 units. There were shipments in April.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:55 AM)
Cow Goes Moo's Avatar
[NSW] 500k
[PS4] 180k
[XB1] 140k
CosmicQueso
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:55 AM)
CosmicQueso's Avatar

Originally Posted by donny2112

You lose! It's May that'll have 0 units. There were shipments in April.

Damn it, let me put this joke in the cooler. I'll bring it back out in a month.
Hattori
Member
(04-29-2017, 04:55 AM)
Hattori's Avatar
[NSW] 745k
[PS4] 207k
[XB1] 168k
Last edited by Hattori; 05-01-2017 at 06:26 PM.
DriftingSpirit
Member
(04-29-2017, 05:00 AM)
DriftingSpirit's Avatar
Looking forward to software holds.
Zedark
Member
(04-29-2017, 07:32 AM)
Zedark's Avatar
[NSW] 550k
[PS4] 210k
[XB1] 160k

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is gonna slay, I expect them to sell more than a million units in US in April tbh.
Last edited by Zedark; 05-06-2017 at 09:01 PM.
Rymuth
Member
(04-29-2017, 07:39 AM)
Rymuth's Avatar
[NSW] 520k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 140k
freefornow
Junior Member
(04-29-2017, 11:31 AM)
freefornow's Avatar
[NSW] 434K
[PS4] 212K
[XB1] 117K
Smiles and Cries
back to my old
nipples and tits
(04-29-2017, 11:39 AM)
Smiles and Cries's Avatar
[NSW] 775k
[PS4] 267k
[XB1] 197k
Zedark
Member
(04-29-2017, 11:46 AM)
Zedark's Avatar

Originally Posted by ethomaz

That is a hard month to predict :(

Luckily last month was easy ;)
donny2112
Member
(04-30-2017, 05:51 AM)

Originally Posted by ethomaz

That is a hard month to predict :(

I figure supply was held back for MK8DX's release, so April might be higher than a hugely supply-constrained month would normally look like. Will be interesting if Nintendo or NPD gives feedback on what % of Switch sales were in the last week (or days) of the retail month, then.
harrisk954
Member
(04-30-2017, 06:00 AM)
harrisk954's Avatar
[NSW] 430k
[PS4] 215k
[XB1] 118k
Last edited by harrisk954; 04-30-2017 at 03:16 PM.
Obliterator
cousin investments
(04-30-2017, 06:01 AM)
Obliterator's Avatar

Originally Posted by Zedark

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is gonna slay, I expect them to sell more than a million units in US in April tbh.

That's almost impossible. The game only has 2 days of tracking.
Sterok
Member
(04-30-2017, 06:05 AM)
Sterok's Avatar
[NSW] 660k
[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 120k

Will Persona make it to top 3? Will Mario Kart claim the throne, or will Wildlands remain king? Does Mass Effect have any legs? Should be an interesting month even with not much going on.
ThatRandomCliff
Member
(04-30-2017, 06:20 AM)
ThatRandomCliff's Avatar
[NSW] 582,053
[PS4] 154,200
[XB1] 98,421

Edit: I'm interested in how well Lego City did. Will it chart? I hope so. Wonder on which console did it sell the most on?
Last edited by ThatRandomCliff; 04-30-2017 at 06:27 AM.
vivekTO
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:30 AM)
vivekTO's Avatar
[NSW] 600k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 110k
Tubie
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:47 AM)
Tubie's Avatar
[NSW] 700k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 130k

Can't wait for Abdiel's musings for this month.
robo
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:50 AM)
robo's Avatar
[NSW] 576k
[PS4] 217k
[XB1] 141k
Trust me, I'm a PhD
Member
(04-30-2017, 10:54 AM)
Trust me, I'm a PhD's Avatar
[NSW] 369K
[PS4] 201K
[XB1] 117K

More so than usual, retail musings will be pretty important this month...
Last edited by Trust me, I'm a PhD; 05-06-2017 at 12:13 PM.
jonno394
Banned
(04-30-2017, 10:58 AM)
jonno394's Avatar
[NSW] 480k
[PS4] 170k
[XB1] 130k

I think Mario Kart will do around 375k. Think MK8 did around that in US during its launch.
Kill3r7
Member
(04-30-2017, 11:12 AM)
Kill3r7's Avatar
[NSW] 500k
[PS4] 199k
[XB1] 130k
jroc74
Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
(04-30-2017, 11:29 AM)
jroc74's Avatar
[NSW] 300K
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 125K
Last edited by jroc74; 05-01-2017 at 06:17 PM.
hanspampel
Member
(04-30-2017, 02:26 PM)
hanspampel's Avatar
Switch 400k +/- 100k
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe #1 game
Last edited by hanspampel; 05-03-2017 at 03:01 PM.
Opt1kon_
Member
(04-30-2017, 02:37 PM)
Opt1kon_'s Avatar
[NSW] 416K
[PS4] 267K
[XB1] 150K
Last edited by Opt1kon_; 05-10-2017 at 05:37 AM.
Graphics Horse
graphics horse
graphics horse
does whatever a
graphics horse does
(04-30-2017, 02:40 PM)
Graphics Horse's Avatar
[NSW] 734k
[PS4] 195k
[XB1] 118k

Too crowded so I'll go out to the edges of plausibility
Shock32
Member
(04-30-2017, 02:46 PM)
Shock32's Avatar
[NSW] 502k
[PS4] 202k
[XB1] 152k
Chobel
I shouldn't make bets because every time I do my tag gets worse
(04-30-2017, 02:47 PM)
Chobel's Avatar
[NSW] 480k
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 120k
Kayant
Member
(04-30-2017, 03:10 PM)
Kayant's Avatar
Welfare thanks for historical data as always 👍

[NSW] 395K
[PS4] 179K
[XB1] 135K
Last edited by Kayant; 05-06-2017 at 03:11 PM.
NeoMetallix
Member
(04-30-2017, 03:14 PM)
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Switch will be significantly down due to supply constraints. PS4 will be nearly double XB1. Persona 5 makes it in top 5.

[NSW] 400K
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 105K
Graben
Junior Member
(04-30-2017, 06:20 PM)
Graben's Avatar
[NSW] 700K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 100K
donny2112
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:49 PM)
[NSW] 350K
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 130K
Last edited by donny2112; 05-04-2017 at 06:04 AM.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:53 PM)
OfficerRaichu15's Avatar
[NSW] 645k
[PS4] 215k
[XB1] 165k
sinonobu
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:56 PM)
sinonobu's Avatar
[NSW] 650k
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 100k
Elandyll
Wants his cup full of frames
(04-30-2017, 07:59 PM)
Elandyll's Avatar
[NSW] 450k
[PS4] 185k
[XB1] 135k
Last edited by Elandyll; 05-05-2017 at 03:06 PM.
Melkr_
Member
(04-30-2017, 07:59 PM)
Melkr_'s Avatar
[NSW] 677k
[PS4] 211k
[XB1] 133k

I stand by the prediction that Switch will do >500k every month until August-September.
Lexxism
Member
(04-30-2017, 08:00 PM)
Lexxism's Avatar
[NSW] 575k
[PS4] 195k
[XB1] 125k
NateDrake
Member
(04-30-2017, 08:02 PM)
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Originally Posted by jonno394

[NSW] 480k
[PS4] 170k
[XB1] 130k

I think Mario Kart will do around 375k. Think MK8 did around that in US during its launch.

415k, I believe.
Welfare
Member
(04-30-2017, 08:03 PM)
Welfare's Avatar

Originally Posted by jonno394

[NSW] 480k
[PS4] 170k
[XB1] 130k

I think Mario Kart will do around 375k. Think MK8 did around that in US during its launch.

415K with digital. ~375K was retail + bundles.
Bitch Pudding
Member
(04-30-2017, 08:59 PM)
Bitch Pudding's Avatar
[NSW] 400k
[PS4] 180k
[XB1] 100k
Mr Swine
Member
(04-30-2017, 09:10 PM)
Mr Swine's Avatar
[NSW] 338k
[PS4] 297K
[XB1] 142k
Gaspard
Member
(04-30-2017, 09:22 PM)
Gaspard's Avatar
[NSW] 600K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 150K
1993dan1
Junior Member
(04-30-2017, 09:31 PM)
[NSW] 425K
[PS4] 186K
[XB1] 162K
Eliseo
Member
(04-30-2017, 09:50 PM)
Eliseo's Avatar
[NSW] 681K
[PS4] 160K
[XB1] 120K
perfectchaos007
Banned
(05-01-2017, 02:43 AM)
perfectchaos007's Avatar
[NSW] 650K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 150K

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