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gfxtwin
Member
(11-10-2017, 04:30 AM)
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So I have a theory that eventually (sooner than later) gaming will be about doing away with the idea of console exclusives.  Sony, Nintendo and MS might still manufacture consoles, but a lot of other companies will too and they'll more or less all be heavily modified PCs each with some unique bells and whistles (UI design, some differences in graphical and audio quality, some might have bluray or 4K readers, some could be more minimal and might not even have disc drives, etc).  Sony, MS and Nintendo eventually become third party game studios OR they might offer Virtual Console, PSN and XBL as app services you subscribe to, similar to Netflix.  

IYO, how likely is it that this will happen in the near future, and is it something that should happen?  What would it mean from a business perspective for the big three?  Are there factors that would prevent this from going down?  Might something like this happen, but in a different way (feel free to specify)? etc, etc
funcojoe
Member
(11-10-2017, 04:33 AM)
Until the nation is wired for fiber and gigabyte speeds that kinda shit won’t happen.

You’re still going to see consoles around for a while.
MoogleMan
Member
(11-10-2017, 04:45 AM)
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That's not happening...
notacat
Member
(11-10-2017, 04:46 AM)
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I could see more subscription services maybe, hopefully not. I also see them dropping any sort of media drive though, only allowing downloads.

Which will suck, since most broaband these days is capping at 1TB already. Most people are saying, "who cares, i'm within that"

Right, today you are. What about this time next year, or 3 years? People are going to slap into that cap pretty quickly if things keep going forward they way they have been.
gfxtwin
Member
(11-10-2017, 04:53 AM)
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Originally Posted by notacat

I could see more subscription services maybe, hopefully not. I also see them dropping any sort of media drive though, only allowing downloads.

Or worse, subscription-based streaming apps.
120v
Member
(11-10-2017, 06:15 AM)
i don't think it's any secret consoles (as we know them) are on their way out, if you look at it on a fundamental level. between streaming, mobile and PC there's going to be less and less reason to have a $500 game box in the living room

caveat is this could happen up to two decades from now. depending on your perspective it's something far, far off or "just around the corner" in the gist of everything.
hzsn724
Member
(11-10-2017, 06:30 AM)
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No. Exclusives drive these companies and their products. It creates healthy competition in the market. If every "system" played the same games then gaming would likely die from parity.
hzsn724
Member
(11-10-2017, 06:33 AM)
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Originally Posted by 120v

between streaming, mobile and PC there's going to be less and less reason to have a $500 game box in the living room

Tell that to Nintendo.
llien
Member
(11-10-2017, 09:11 AM)
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Exclusives are the major reason to pick consoles.
Playstation was dominant in times when it was not the fastest on the market.

And, remind me, how well do game streaming services (there is a handful of) fare at the moment?

We have people saying no to wireless mice, to reduce lag (however reasonable that is), yet someone is trying to have you play games essentially over remote desktop.
120v
Member
(11-10-2017, 10:40 AM)

Originally Posted by llien


And, remind me, how well do game streaming services (there is a handful of) fare at the moment?

how well were streaming video services faring in 2005 or thereabouts. gaming has a ways to go but you really can't go on the present alone
Sosokrates
Member
(11-10-2017, 11:54 AM)
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Im interested to see how long 3rd parties will support ps4 pro and one X.

Support for the 360/ps3 was stopped because of not supporting the latest shader models and not having enough ram.

But will next gen be the same?
Is there going to be a progression in game engine tech like more advanced shader models, that the Polaris based GPU's don't support?

Im doubhtful this will happen because we are already seeing tech demos made with current game engines that are nearly a gen ahead of current PS4/X1 visuals.
DESTROYA
Member
(11-10-2017, 12:31 PM)
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Not likely to happen anytime soon.
delete12345
Junior Member
(11-10-2017, 01:37 PM)

Originally Posted by Sosokrates

Im interested to see how long 3rd parties will support ps4 pro and one X.

Support for the 360/ps3 was stopped because of not supporting the latest shader models and not having enough ram.

But will next gen be the same?
Is there going to be a progression in game engine tech like more advanced shader models, that the Polaris based GPU's don't support?

Im doubhtful this will happen because we are already seeing tech demos made with current game engines that are nearly a gen ahead of current PS4/X1 visuals.

Definitely power consumption. I want 10 hours of battery life for Switch 2 in the next 5 years.
TheDreadLord
Junior Member
(11-10-2017, 01:42 PM)
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The future of consoles is the switch. NVidia has been doing and awesome job with these tiny powerful beasts. I guess it is a matter of time until they achieve the same level of capacity as todays high end systems. Of course these systems will evolve with time but we are reaching a point in gamming at which the generation leaps are not that big anyway.
radewagon
Junior Member
(11-10-2017, 03:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by gfxtwin

So I have a theory that eventually (sooner than later) gaming will be about doing away with the idea of console exclusives. 

I'm gonna go ahead and stop you right there. Console exclusives are the bread and butter. The lack of them is what's hurting Microsoft right now.

As for the big three going third party, I doubt that too. They make a lot of money off of licensing fees. If they ditch their platforms, they stand to lose a large chunk of money. And though streaming could work, the infrastructure needed to get gaming to properly stream is cost prohibitive and offers mixed results (look at the failed Playstation Now).
Memorabilia
Member
(11-10-2017, 04:34 PM)
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
Croatoan
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(11-10-2017, 04:48 PM)
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This will happen when we have 8g internet covering everyone. Lol
zenspider
Member
(11-10-2017, 05:15 PM)

Originally Posted by 120v

i don't think it's any secret consoles (as we know them) are on their way out, if you look at it on a fundamental level. between streaming, mobile and PC there's going to be less and less reason to have a $500 game box in the living room

caveat is this could happen up to two decades from now. depending on your perspective it's something far, far off or "just around the corner" in the gist of everything.

I disagree. Consoles have been homogenizing, and the blurring of lines between different platforms will continue, but there is no foreseeable future where people will not want a no-fuss way to play the latest games.

The better and faster technology gets, the more our expectations for speed, flexibility, and ease of use is, and the more reason to have to consoles and dedicated devices. Everything I can do on a PC, I have a device that does the job better in real-world use cases, be it a tablet, console, streaming stick, phone, etc., and different cases among them as well.

Maybe the living room box will disappear, so maybe this is getting muddied in a semantic argument between a console and a platform or ecosystem, but I think on that fundamental level you speak of - the promise of a standardized experience that is guaranteed to work and all the benefits that come with that environment - isn't going anywhere. So why would exclusivity?
Sosokrates
Member
(11-10-2017, 05:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by delete12345

Definitely power consumption. I want 10 hours of battery life for Switch 2 in the next 5 years.

I don not understand the relevance your post has to mine?
_A2
Junior Member
(11-10-2017, 08:24 PM)
I don't think so. Third parties selling what? Their games? Certainly not. They want the massive 30% cut of every sale on the platform, that is why they finance games, not for the small gains from games, that 30% is risk free.
HAdoubleRY
Junior Member
(11-10-2017, 10:09 PM)
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Nintendo would never do this. Maybe Sony. But as long as they make quality exclusives, they'll have a monetary incentive to sell standalone consoles.
justiceiro
Junior Member
(11-10-2017, 10:13 PM)
Secret Michael Patcher account?
BANGS
Member
(11-10-2017, 10:24 PM)
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The only reason to buy consoles is for exclusives, why would they go away?
Stranger Things
Banned
(11-10-2017, 10:38 PM)
i bet sony is going to build a tv with a playstation console BUILT IN
EventHorizon
Member
(11-10-2017, 11:15 PM)
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Originally Posted by Stranger Things

i bet sony is going to build a tv with a playstation console BUILT IN

That could happen, but it would be a horrible idea. The use case for a console and a TV are different. TVs are meant to last a lot longer, while consoles are getting half-gen upgrades. Consoles are also at least semi-portable. You don't do it often but being able to take your console to another TV has it's uses.

I'm also not sure how much benefit you get from a console being included with a TV. The space and cooling requirement don't seem like something that would match well. You'd likely end up with a console sized box attached at the bottom which the TV sits on.

In my opinion, it'd be better to go the other way and make a large dumb monitor that is designed to be attached to something that will give it a signal to show. If you really wanted to go crazy you could make a special cable that attached to PlayStations that combined the power and signal, but that seems like overkill.
delete12345
Junior Member
(11-11-2017, 02:05 AM)

Originally Posted by Sosokrates

I don not understand the relevance your post has to mine?

Ah, it was supposed to be this quote:

But will next gen be the same?
Is there going to be a progression in game engine tech like more advanced shader models, that the Polaris based GPU's don't support?

Right now, the future focus should be about:
  1. How to reduce the power consumption?
  2. How to increase performance with the reduced energy consumption?
  3. How to utilize new technology to improve or surpass the current technology?
  4. How to avoid pitfalls with the laws of physics?

Going in from top to bottom, hence I said "Definitely power consumption".
Rathorial
Member
(11-11-2017, 09:58 AM)
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No matter what, I do think there will be console-sized, console-priced PCs in the future that do well, and I wonder if the big 3 won't just become hardware agnostic service providers. Microsoft is already down the route merging their console and PC ecosystems under Windows 10, and the Xbone is just going to get upgrades while working with your old content.

I'd be surprised if Nintendo radically changes their hardware, since all of these companies are using chipsets made by other tech companies, than any cell-like uniqueness anymore.

It's still going to be a while, because the slow upgrade of internet infrastructure will limit the streaming model future...which I'm ok with because the money devs in other mediums make from streaming models hasn't been amazing.
Azelover
Member
(11-11-2017, 10:22 AM)
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Originally Posted by gfxtwin

So I have a theory that eventually (sooner than later) gaming will be about doing away with the idea of console exclusives.  Sony, Nintendo and MS might still manufacture consoles, but a lot of other companies will too and they'll more or less all be heavily modified PCs each with some unique bells and whistles (UI design, some differences in graphical and audio quality, some might have bluray or 4K readers, some could be more minimal and might not even have disc drives, etc).  Sony, MS and Nintendo eventually become third party game studios OR they might offer Virtual Console, PSN and XBL as app services you subscribe to, similar to Netflix.  

IYO, how likely is it that this will happen in the near future, and is it something that should happen?  What would it mean from a business perspective for the big three?  Are there factors that would prevent this from going down?  Might something like this happen, but in a different way (feel free to specify)? etc, etc

It's quite a valid vision you have. It's the wet dream of a lot of people in the industry, and there have been quite a few of them that have predicted what you just said OP.

I don't think it should happen. As far as Microsoft goes I don't know, it is less likely that Sony would do it, and even less Nintendo.

Nintendo can be described as a "Integrated hardware and software" company, just like Apple but making games themselves. It would never work well for all of Nintendo to make just software. Super Mario 64 and the Nintendo 64's development went together, one wouldn't exist without the other. This is just a small example. The Wii would never have been here if the hardware team and software team were separated. I don't think the Switch would have happened either.

It's definitely possible that Nintendo systems don't succed after the Switch, but they have the capability to try many times over and support the systems for an extended period, even with few users. Their games have quality but they aren't overbloated, and the physical size of the company isn't huge, they can adjust to a smaller market if they so wish.

So unless some severe arm twisting happens it will be really difficult to do what you're suggesting. But it's a really good thought, very relevant.
VCALMLIKEABOMBV
Junior Member
(11-11-2017, 10:47 AM)
I think we are in a really interesting time when it comes to the future of gaming. I think with internet speeds getting more advanced we are going to see the end to physical media as far as disk based games in the near future potentially. I think we have the evidence of that with Microsoft jumping the gun and stating the xbox one was heading in that direction when xbox one was first announced.

I personally get most of my games via the xbox store or psn as digital downloads currently. I was thinking about the price points for systems recently because of the release of the Iphone X. It is amazing that people will spend 1000-1300 for a phone that 90% of people are most likely just going to talk, text, check social media, and take pictures as the primary function. Yet we have people who complain that the Xbox One X is too expensive at 500 dollars. This is a machine that you can play games on, stream movies from many different sources, use the internet, you can even do video chats now with the webcam of your choice. Can you imagine what kind of machine could have been built with the Iphone X price point of 1000-1300?

I think it would be amazing if the big game companies got together and made one machine that was just a powerhouse, and each concentrated on software. I know that is far fetched but software sales where is much of the revenue is.

It is going to be interesting to see the direction of gaming in the future. I love my Xbox One X, in the back of my mind I keep thinking what if it had a powerhouse CPU in it. I have been a gamer since pong, I know MS would have had my 1000 dollars. Maybe they would have been "nice" enough to let us finance it like cell phones. haha.
Sosokrates
Member
(11-11-2017, 11:02 AM)
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Originally Posted by delete12345

Ah, it was supposed to be this quote:



Right now, the future focus should be about:

  1. How to reduce the power consumption?
  2. How to increase performance with the reduced energy consumption?
  3. How to utilize new technology to improve or surpass the current technology?
  4. How to avoid pitfalls with the laws of physics?

Going in from top to bottom, hence I said "Definitely power consumption".

GPU and game engine feature sets is a different subject to hardware power consumption, unless you mean GPU'S and game engines being able to do things with less computioninal calculation?
For example Uncharted 4 uses roughly 1.84 tflops on the PS4's slightly enhanced picticarn GPU architecture but on future GPU's Uncharted 4 can run at the same quality using 500gflops.

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